JPMorgan is warning of deeper trouble ahead for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), saying the company’s recent vehicle delivery miss highlights significant brand deterioration tied to CEO Elon Musk’s controversial government role.
The bank said Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries — which dropped to 336,681 units, the lowest in nearly three years — confirm “unprecedented brand damage.” The results missed even JPMorgan’s already bearish forecast by over 18,000 units and fell short of the broader consensus by more than 53,000 vehicles.
JPMorgan analysts acknowledged that the steep decline suggests they may have underestimated the extent of consumer backlash. They pointed specifically to Musk’s ongoing involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which they believe has increasingly weighed on Tesla’s public perception and brand value.
The firm noted that they expect consensus estimates to be revised lower in the wake of the delivery miss. As a result, JPMorgan cut its Q1 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $0.36, down from $0.40 previously and below the Street estimate of $0.46. Full-year EPS expectations were also lowered to $2.30, compared to the prior $2.70. The bank also trimmed its 2025 vehicle delivery forecast to 1.715 million units, down from 1.775 million.
Despite Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares trading above $245, JPMorgan reiterated its December 2025 price target of $120, suggesting a significant downside from current levels. The stock is currently down more than 8% in intraday trading.
