Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) surged more than 7% on Thursday after Bernstein analysts identified the company, along with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), as one of the best-positioned U.S. automakers to navigate the upcoming 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. The tariffs, set to take effect on April 3, are expected to shake up the U.S. automotive industry significantly.
While Bernstein analysts acknowledge that the tariffs will pose a major challenge, they believe the impact will be “survivable.” However, they also cautioned that the tariffs will likely “leave scars” and reshape competitive dynamics across the sector. According to Bernstein, the tariffs will impose a blunt shock to gross profit, particularly for automakers and suppliers dependent on imports.
Bernstein estimates the unmitigated tariff impact on the industry could reach approximately $110 billion, or about $6,700 per vehicle. This would be especially challenging for companies like Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), which could face up to 30% declines in EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) by 2025, even with some price pass-through to consumers and adjustments in sourcing strategies.
On the other hand, Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) is expected to fare better. The company’s reliance on U.S.-made components in its Mexico-produced vehicles makes it more resilient to the tariff impact than its competitors.
While traditional U.S. automakers face significant hurdles, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) emerges as the biggest beneficiary in this environment. Bernstein referred to Tesla as the “clear structural winner,” noting its localized manufacturing, strong market share, and reduced exposure to trade risks. Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), with its U.S.-based manufacturing footprint, was also seen as better positioned than many competitors.
Although the full impact of the tariffs may not be immediately visible, Bernstein expects the financial consequences to start becoming apparent by mid-May and accelerate through Q3 earnings. Looking further ahead, Bernstein warned that FY26 could bring an even greater earnings impact, predicting a 20% larger decline unless automakers make significant adjustments to their sourcing strategies.
Despite the historical tendency for tariff measures to be walked back, Bernstein analysts emphasized that this rollout is different. They described it as being more coordinated and operationally detailed, which they believe makes a reversal less likely. Still, they suggested that Wall Street’s reaction could prompt the administration to reconsider the move.
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