BENGALURU – Purchasing affordability for first-time U.S. homebuyers will worsen over the coming year on tight supply and just a few more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, even as average home price rises slow, according to a Reuters poll of property experts.
Without enough entry-level housing for sale, particularly for families, affordability has long been the burning issue in the housing market of the world’s largest economy, consistently pricing out prospective first-time homebuyers.
Slightly lower interest rates over the coming six months will not be enough to entice new buyers into a housing market where prices are still over 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to a November 12-27 Reuters poll of property analysts.
On purchasing affordability expectations, 10 of 19 survey respondents changed their view to “worsen” from “improve” compared with an August survey. All 26 polled in August said it would improve.
“Take the U.S. and a lot of the West – they’re getting older. That’s where the wealth is. They take on second homes, even third homes, pricing out younger generations who just haven’t had enough time to build up any savings,” said John LaForge, head of real asset strategy, Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“We continue to have these big overhangs – do you have the money for down payments? Do you have savings with the younger generation? I’d say we’re getting better, but we’re nowhere close to where we need to be.”
The median age of U.S. homebuyers is 49, up from 31 in 1981, according to recent research from Apollo Global Management.
Average U.S. home price rises, based on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas, will slow from 5.1% this year to 3.2% next, and 3.5% in 2026, Reuters poll medians showed.
Those forecasts are roughly unchanged from August. That comes despite financial markets currently pricing only about three more quarter-point interest rate cuts from the Fed, just half what was expected then, on worries of an inflation resurgence following Donald Trump’s election victory.
HOUSE PRICE RISES TO OUTPACE RENTS
Expensive homes have also forced many to keep renting, making up slightly over one-third of occupied U.S. housing. Asked what would happen to average rent inflation over the coming year, over 70% of survey respondents, 13 of 18, said it would stay about the same or decrease.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 13 of 20, said average home prices would rise faster than average rents over the coming year.
“We expect house price growth will continue to slow as low affordability forces more buyers out of the market. Sellers will have to adjust their expectations on price increases to sell their properties,” said Cristian deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Existing home sales, comprising more than 90% of total sales, are forecast to rise only slightly to a 4.0 million unit annualized rate next quarter and stay around that rate over coming quarters. That is well below 6.6 million units in 2021, in the middle of the pandemic boom.
Fewer Fed rate cuts will also prevent mortgage rates from falling much more.
The 30-year mortgage rate, which averaged nearly 7% through 2023, is forecast to average 6.5% next year and decline only to 6.3% in 2026 – higher than 6.1% and 5.9%, respectively, predicted in the August survey.
“With home prices expected to continue to rise and mortgage rates declining less than we previously expected after Trump’s election, conditions for first-time buyers are likely to worsen,” said Grace Zwemmer from Oxford Economics.
