U.S. banks saw weaker demand for a key category of business loans during the third quarter, while the demand picture for consumer credit card and auto loans also softened, according to a Federal Reserve survey on Tuesday that showed the Fed’s pivot to lower interest rates has yet to improve credit demand.
The net share of banks seeing stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans from large and medium business clients during the third quarter fell to negative 21.3% from zero in the second quarter and from small firms slid to negative 18.6% from zero, according to the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS.
On the consumer front, the net share of banks reporting stronger demand for credit card loans fell to negative 2.1% from a positive 2.0% in the second quarter. For auto loans, it fell to minus 12.8% from minus 10.4%.
Banks on balance left lending terms unchanged for their larger business clients but more of them tightened terms for small businesses. Both terms of credit and loan demand weakened in the commercial real estate sector.
For consumers, the net share of banks tightening terms for credit card loans ticked down to the lowest in about two years, while a larger share of banks reported more stringent auto loan terms. Residential mortgage lending terms were little changed while demand weakened in the face of resurgent mortgage interest rates during the period.
Fed officials had the survey results in hand last week when they cut interest rates for a second straight meeting, bringing the central bank’s policy rate to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Rates have now fallen by 75 basis points since September 18, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week flagged a more cautious approach to lowering rates going forward.
The survey shows the Fed’s shift toward easier policy hasn’t yet ignited the improved credit demand and terms many had expected to see. However, the survey’s measures of both metrics have improved from their worst levels a year or so ago. Many market-based rates have actually risen in the weeks since the Fed’s first rate cut on worries that inflation may get rekindled under a second White House term for Donald Trump, who won last week’s presidential election with pledges for an aggressive fiscal agenda.
“Banks began to slowly turn the corner on lending, but they didn’t rush to open the credit spigot last quarter,” Nationwide Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin said in a note.
“Meanwhile, loan demand was soft. The slow turnaround in lending standards suggests a positive growth impulse from credit to the real economy is ahead, which should help lessen the drag from the recent run-up in interest rates. However, we don’t foresee a strong tailwind.”
