Shares of MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB) dropped approximately 35% since the company’s Q4 earnings report on March 5, as investors responded to softer-than-expected results and a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026.
Today, Citi analysts lowered their price target on the stock from $430 to $330 but reiterated a Buy/High Risk rating. The price target cut reflects a more conservative outlook on MongoDB’s near-term growth trajectory, though it did not have a material impact on the stock’s performance given the adjustment follows the earlier earnings-driven selloff.
The revised view accounts for slower non-Atlas revenue growth and delays in workload ramp-up observed during fiscal 2025. Citi also trimmed its three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast for Atlas by two percentage points, with a slightly reduced profitability outlook due to a lower mix of long-term enterprise contracts.
Despite the reset in expectations, Citi continues to see MongoDB as well-positioned for long-term growth. The firm highlighted the company’s strategic role in database modernization and growing demand from generative AI applications. MongoDB’s recent acquisition of Voyager.ai is seen as a positive move to expand its presence in the AI and data infrastructure market.
However, MongoDB was removed from Citi’s Focus List, as the firm cited delays in growth acceleration and broader investor sentiment shifts. Still, analysts maintained the stock as a top pick for 2025, suggesting the recent selloff may be overdone.
In its Q4 2025 earnings report, MongoDB guided for Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of $0.63 to $0.67 per share on revenue of $524 million to $529 million—largely in line with analyst estimates. For the full fiscal year, the company expects EPS between $2.44 and $2.62 and revenue between $2.24 billion and $2.28 billion. The midpoint implies annual revenue growth of approximately 12.7%. Consensus estimates had projected stronger performance, at $3.34 in EPS and $2.32 billion in revenue.
MongoDB has a consensus rating of “Overweight” and a mean price target of $292.76, which implies a potential upside of 69.2% from the current stock price.
