Citigroup, previously the only Wall Street brokerage forecasting a 50 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, has now aligned with its peers in expecting a quarter-point reduction at the central bank’s December policy meeting.
Citigroup’s revision came after data on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 jobs last month, following an upward revision to 36,000 jobs in October. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted a gain of 200,000 jobs, compared with the initially reported increase of 12,000 in October.
U.S. job growth surged in November after being severely hindered by hurricanes and strikes, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% pointed to an easing labor market that indicated the Fed could likely cut interest rates this month.
Major brokerages including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have reiterated their expectation of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in December after the jobs data.
“The report was not quite soft enough for the Fed to cut 50bp as we had projected for December, but a 25bp cut in December appears very likely,” Citigroup analysts said in a note dated Dec. 6.
“We expect the Fed to continue to cut in 25bp increments at each upcoming meeting to a terminal policy rate of 3.00-3.25%,” they added.
In a separate note dated December 6, Citigroup introduced its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 6500 and maintained its “positive” view on U.S. equities going into 2025.
