On Friday, the Federal Reserve policymakers got fresh confirmation that inflation is continuing to ease, clearing the way for a first interest rate reduction next month as they shift their focus to preventing further cooling in the labor market.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.5% in July from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported, matching the gain in June. Over the most recent three months, the annualized reading on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is well below its 2% goal.
Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that “the time has come” to cut rates, after a battle with decades-high inflation that saw the U.S. central bank raising rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023. It has kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July.
“The recent price trends confirm that the end of the Fed’s inflation fight is coming into view,” assuring a rate cut at the Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, wrote. “The further cooling of inflation could give the Fed leeway to be more aggressive with rate declines at coming meetings, especially if the labor market shows a steep deterioration.”
After the release of the report, which also showed consumer spending rising solidly, traders kept bets that the Fed would stick to a quarter-percentage-point reduction at first, but deliver a bigger half-percentage-point cut at a later meeting.
Financial markets continue to price in the Fed cutting rates by a full percentage point by the end of this year. Most analysts are predicting a bit less, given how strong the economy has been, but say that labor market readings will drive how aggressive the Fed ultimately is.
The U.S. central bank has gone “from being an inflation-first Fed to a labor-first Fed,” is how economists at Evercore ISI summed up the situation on Friday.
The unemployment rate has risen nearly a full percentage point, to 4.3%, since the Fed stopped raising rates a little more than a year ago. That is still low by historical standards but enough for Powell to declare that the Fed would not welcome any further weakening.
The focus of investors as well as the Fed now turns to a run of key data before the September meeting, including the release of the U.S. government’s employment report for August on Friday and the consumer price index report for August in the following week.
(Source: ReutersReuters)
