NEW YORK – Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said Thursday the central bank has made considerable progress in working to achieve its job and inflation goals while stopping short of offering firm guidance over what that means for the near-term monetary policy outlook.
“The United States has seen considerable disinflation while experiencing a cooling but still resilient labor market,” Kugler said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association and the Latin American and Caribbean Chapter of the Econometric Society, in Montevideo, Uruguay.
But while there’s been progress on getting inflation back to the 2% target, Kugler noted there are likely to be ongoing challenges to further ease price pressures from housing factors and other factors. Meanwhile, Kugler said the job market has rebalanced itself and cooled.
As for the monetary policy implications of the current landscape, Kugler said it would come down how the data performs. She did not say in her formal remarks whether she expected the Fed to cut rates again next month.
The combination “of a continued but slowing trend in disinflation and cooling labor markets means that we need to continue paying attention to both sides of our mandate,” the official said. If inflation doesn’t retreat further “it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts. But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate.”
The official also devoted part of her remarks to discussing the virtues of central bank independence at a time when that could come under threat with the return of Donald Trump as American president.
“It has been widely recognized – and is a finding of economic research – that central bank independence is fundamental to achieving good policy and good economic outcomes,” Kugler said. She noted an independent central bank has the freedom to take a longer view of economic developments that elected leaders sometimes cannot.
Kugler also said that while independence is critical for good economic outcomes it remains critical that central banks be transparent about their work.
