Following are investor and analyst reactions after Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday in what the FBI said it was treating as an assassination attempt.
The Trump campaign later said the former president was “doing well” and appeared to have suffered no major injury besides a wound on his upper right ear.
QUINCY KROSBY, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, LPL FINANCIAL, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA
“As with any geopolitical event underpinned by mounting concern or outright fear – especially given the opening of the Republican convention – gold would have a strong bid, coupled with a pickup in demand for Treasuries.
“In addition, the dollar – which has been softening due to the market’s perception that the Fed seems poised to cut rates in September – could gain if the safety trade gains momentum.
“If, however, a scenario unfolds that there’s a broader threat aimed at U.S. officials, the equity market could open significantly lower, requiring the Fed to provide liquidity. At this point, this narrative is highly unlikely.”
JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT CRESSET CAPITAL, CHICAGO:
“The specter of political violence introduces a whole new level of potential instability.
“It’s uncertainty and volatility, and of course, markets don’t like that. It’s not an environment anyone wants to see.
The attempted assassination probably enhances Trump’s “reputation for strength,” Ablin said.
Bond markets may repeat a trading pattern similar to after President Joe Biden’s debate performance against Trump, Ablin said, referring to a steeper Treasury yield curve.
“Perhaps we see the market begin projecting longer-term rates higher, and anticipating lower short-term rates because I think it’s clear that as president, Trump would push for lower rates right away.”
STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST AT INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH
“I’ll be looking to see if the October-December bump in VIX futures expands or if the Treasury yield curve steepens. The former indicates concerns about electoral and post-electoral volatility, while the latter would indicate bond market concerns about Trump’s likelihood of replacing income taxes with tariffs.
“I’m not sure that this will have much of an impact on equity markets. Stock traders are not particularly good at pricing in events with a nebulous impact on revenues, earnings, cash flows, etc. and this weekend’s events fall into that category.”
JOHN CHAMBERS, FORMER CHAIRMAN SOVEREIGN RATINGS COMMITTEE, STANDARD & POOR’S, NEW YORK
“Like everyone, I am appalled by the assassination attempt on former President Trump.
“It could harbinger a return to political violence, the likes of which the U.S. experienced in the 1960s.
Such an outcome would be grievous, but given the strength of U.S. institutions, I don’t believe it would have an impact on ratings.”
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN
“It was horrible to watch the video clips. From a purely market perspective, the question is what it does to the odds of one candidate winning over the other. Will it throw Trump off his game, as these types of rallies are a key part of his campaign strategy? It could strengthen the resolve of his supporters to go to the voting booth. Voter turnout is the key to winning.”
TINA FORDHAM, GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST AND FOUNDER, FORDHAM GLOBAL FORESIGHT, LONDON
“The shooting further complicates the election outlook for Democrats, already divided over Biden’s future as a candidate.
“U.S. political violence is sadly a feature and not a bug. … The question now is how a nation, in which a significant proportion of citizens believe civil war is increasingly likely, will respond.
“We don’t expect there to be an initial reaction in financial markets. If anything, the near-term implication will be the acceleration of the consensus view in markets of a Trump victory.”
IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP, NEW YORK
“I deeply worry that it presages much more political violence and social instability to come. This is the kind of thing we have seen historically in lots of countries facing instability and frequently does not end well.
“Democracy is not in crisis right now. This is a year of many elections, and we’ve seen them in India, the world’s most populous country, with 1.5 billion people. We’ve seen it across the European Union, the largest common market. We’ve seen it in France, in the United Kingdom, in Mexico – rich countries, poor countries, democracies, all.
“They have had free, fair elections with peaceful transitions. That is not what we are seeing right now in the United States. The U.S. is the only major democracy in the world today that is experiencing a serious crisis.”
KHOON GOH, HEAD OF ASIA RESEARCH, ANZ, SINGAPORE
“The probability of Trump winning has increased to 70% in the betting markets after the assassination attempt. I am not sure how markets will respond.
“The bitcoin rally could be (on) concerns of more civil unrest. We will likely see some risk-off moves on the market open, but that should fade quickly.”
NICK TWIDALE, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, ATFX GLOBAL, SYDNEY:
“I think it probably increases his chances, and we will probably see some haven flows in the morning.”
RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE
“The shooting is likely to bolster Trump’s support, and only further augments the positive momentum he has been enjoying following the presidential debates two weeks ago.
“The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterized by a stronger U.S. dollar and a steepening of the U.S. Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident.”
NICK FERRES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, VANTAGE POINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE
“The election is likely to be a landslide (for Trump). This probably reduces uncertainty.
“Trump has always been more ‘pro-market’ – the key issue looking forward is whether fiscal policy remains irresponsibly loose and the implication that might have for (renewed) inflation and the future path of interest rates.”
Ferres cited polls showing a surge in support for Ronald Reagan after a 1981 assassination attempt.
According to statistics recorded by the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Reagan’s approval rating, already rising sharply in the early months of his presidency, went up by a further 7 percentage points in the first poll conducted after the attempt.
The increase was temporary and subsided over the next three months.
HEMANT MISHR, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, S CUBE CAPITAL, SINGAPORE
“I do think this will have a shock reaction on a market that has been on tenterhooks on the U.S. election.
“I see the odds of the Trump trade getting reinforced over the next few months till November unless the Democrats can come up with a really credible alternative.
“It just significantly improves the odds in his favor and will lead to a steepening of the U.S. curve over the next few months. (I) would bet on high growth, high inflation trades – financials and energy to do well, and negative for Asian currencies.”
(Source: ReutersReuters)
