SYDNEY – U.S. Treasuries slipped and the dollar firmed on Monday as investors wagered the attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump making his victory more likely while injecting a whole new level of political uncertainty into markets.
A holiday in Japan made for thin trading in Asia and action was confined to a modest rise in the dollar, gains for bitcoin, and selling U.S. bonds. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were up almost five basis points in early London trade.
Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.
Proposals to levy tariffs on imports would push prices higher while eating into consumer spending power. Meanwhile, restrictions on immigration could tighten the labor market and put upward pressure on wages.
“The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterized by a stronger U.S. dollar and a steepening of the U.S. Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident,” said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring investments in Singapore.
Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats.
The dollar edged up 0.3% on the Japanese yen to 157.96 but remained well short of its recent 161.96 top following a bout of suspected intervention.
The euro eased slightly to $1.0893, while bitcoin – seen benefiting from lighter regulation under a Trump administration – was up about 4% at a two-week high.
Futures for 10-year Treasuries slipped 13 ticks in the Asia session and 10-year yields rose 4.8 basis points to 4.2353% in early cash trades in London.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both marginally higher. European futures fell 0.5% and FTSE futures were down 0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei was shut, but futures were trading at 41,285 compared to a cash close of 41,190.
CHINA DATA MISSES
Disappointing economic data kicked off a busy week in China, where a once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from July 15-18.
Second-quarter growth in the world’s second-largest economy was 4.7% higher than a year earlier, missing a 5.1% analyst forecast.
Of particular concern was the consumer sector, with retail sales growth grinding to an 18-month low, while new home prices dropped at their fastest pace in nine years.
“Markets are hoping that more significant measures could be announced during this week’s plenary session to help the limping economy and ailing property sector,” said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.
The yuan was under pressure at 7.2608 per dollar. Mainland stocks slipped and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was last down 1%.
Later this week, the United States will release data on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and weekly jobless claims.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear at the Economic Club of Washington later on Monday and is bound to be asked for his reaction to last week’s subdued inflation reading.
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.
The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.75%, ahead of another cut seen likely in September.
Among the host of companies reporting earnings this week are Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
In commodity markets, gold held at $2,408 an ounce, just off last week’s top of $2,424.
Oil prices inched up, having fallen on Friday amid signs of progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Brent gained 7 cents to $85.10 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 15 cents to $82.36 per barrel.
(Source: ReutersReuters)
