On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields rose after the Treasury Department saw soft demand for a $42 billion sale of 10-year notes and as companies rushed to sell debt as risk appetite improved.
Supply is the main focus this week as traders wait on fresh economic data for further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy.
Yields tumbled to more than one-year lows after Friday’s employment report for July showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate, while jobs gains also came in below economists’ forecasts, raising fears of an imminent recession.
Tumbling stock markets partly blamed by traders unwinding popular dollar/yen carry trades, in which they sold the Japanese currency and bought U.S. assets, added to demand for safe haven U.S. debt.
This demand has since ebbed as stocks move higher, but Treasury yields remain well below where they have recently traded, which was seen as denting interest in Wednesday’s debt auction.
The 10-year notes sold at a high yield of 3.96%, 3 basis points above where they traded before the sale. Demand was 2.32 times the amount of debt on offer, the weakest since December 2022.
“Investors just weren’t willing to pay up for sub-4% 10s,” said Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. “This suggests this move may still have a little bit further to run before dip buyers reemerge in a more meaningful way.”
Heavy corporate debt issuance also pushed yields higher.
“You have a lot of issuers who paused on Monday and even maybe held back yesterday just to make sure the coast was clear in terms of how risk assets are going to be received and now are coming to market today,” said Michael Lorizio, senior fixed income trader at Manulife Investment Management in Boston.
Yields on interest rate-sensitive two-year notes were last up 1.8 basis points on the day at 4.0034%, after going as low as 3.654% on Monday, the lowest since April 2023.
Benchmark 10-year note yields rose 8 basis points to 3.968%, after reaching 3.667% on Monday, the lowest since June 2023.
The yield curve between two- and 10-year Treasury notes steepened 4 basis points to minus 4 basis points. It reached 1.50 basis points on Monday, the first time it has turned positive since July 2022.
Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18 as the economy slows, but they are also pricing in a 31% chance of a smaller 25 basis point rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
The odds of an emergency rate cut before the September meeting have fallen as risk markets recover.
The next major U.S. economic release will be consumer price inflation for July on Aug. 14. Comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 22-24 may also provide new clues on the path of rate cuts.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could also increase demand for U.S. Treasuries.
(Source: ReutersReuters)
