Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares slid about 5% in the regular trading session on Monday after Mizuho analysts lowered their price target from $515 to $430, citing weakening demand and headwinds from China amid tariff uncertainty.
Mizuho revised its delivery outlook for Tesla. The firm now forecasts 1.8 million vehicles delivered in 2025 and 2.3 million in 2026, lower than their previous estimates of 2.3 million for 2025 and 2.9 million for 2026.
Analysts noted that Tesla “significantly underperformed the market” in the U.S., China, and Europe last month. In the U.S., Tesla’s sales fell 2% year-over-year, while the broader market rose 16%. In China, the EV giant saw a sharp 49% decline, compared to an 85% surge in the overall market. Meanwhile, sales in Germany plummeted 76%, even as the market grew 31%.
Mizuho analysts attributed some of Tesla’s challenges to a “deterioration in geopolitics” and shifts in brand perception. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has taken a prominent role in U.S. politics, serving as head of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency. Recent protests and reports of vandalism targeting Tesla vehicles have raised concerns that Musk’s political involvement may be hurting sales.
The analysts also pointed to growing competition from domestic electric vehicle manufacturers in China and weaker-than-expected demand for Tesla’s Model Y refresh.
Despite the downgrade, Mizuho’s new $430 price target implies over 80% upside from Monday’s intraday price. This figure stands well above the consensus target of about $367, derived from analysts tracked by Visible Alpha.
Other analysts have a more bearish outlook. Last week, Wells Fargo cut its target to $130, while JPMorgan set its target at $120, signaling further potential downside for Tesla stock.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have shed roughly half their value since hitting a peak of $479.86 on December 17.
