SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) faces another major test after approximately 911.5 million shares held by rank-and-file employees and some early investors became eligible for sale on August 6.
The newly eligible block is roughly 43% larger than the 638.9 million shares sold through the company’s initial public offering. Based on SpaceX’s August 6 closing price of $114.92, the block has a theoretical market value of approximately $104.8 billion.
The expiration increased the potentially tradable portion of SpaceX’s outstanding shares from around 4.9% to 11.8%. This means the pool of shares potentially available for public trading has more than doubled.
However, this does not mean that all 911.5 million shares have entered the market. The shares have merely become eligible for sale. The stock’s next move will depend partly on how many employees and early investors actually decide to cash out.
Why the SpaceX Share Unlock Is Bearish
Lockup expirations are often viewed as bearish because they increase the potential supply of shares available to investors.
Before the expiration, only a small portion of SpaceX’s total shares could be freely traded. This limited supply likely helped support the stock immediately after its blockbuster IPO, particularly as retail and institutional demand chased one of the most anticipated listings in history.
That supply imbalance has now changed. SpaceX employees, venture-capital firms and other early shareholders can begin converting some of their long-held positions into cash.
Many early investors acquired their shares when SpaceX was valued far below its market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion at the August 6 close. Even after the stock’s rebound on unlock day, some of those shareholders are likely sitting on substantial profits and may be willing to sell below the $135 IPO price.
Under SpaceX’s final IPO prospectus, up to 20% of the shares subject to the standard 180-day lockup became transferable following the company’s second-quarter results. Additional tranches are scheduled to become tradable later in 2026 under the company’s unusual staggered lockup structure.
The possibility of more selling by pre-IPO shareholders later in 2026 could create a continuing supply overhang rather than a single day of volatility.
SpaceX Stock Remains in a Broader Downtrend
The unlock came at a particularly difficult moment for SpaceX stock.
SPCX closed at $108.27 on August 5 after falling approximately 13.6% during the session. On August 6, however, the stock rebounded 6.1% in heavy trading to close at $114.92, even as the newly eligible shares became available for sale. The rebound left SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) nearly 15% below its $135 IPO price and approximately 49% below its post-IPO intraday high of $225.64.
That means investors who purchased SpaceX shares at the IPO or during the initial rally are still holding significant paper losses.
The August 5 decline followed SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company. Although the operational results were strong, investors reacted negatively to the company’s enormous spending plans.
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, representing growth of 92% from a year earlier. Its net loss narrowed from approximately $1 billion to $541 million, while adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, nearly tripled to $3.54 billion.
The main investor concern was capital expenditure. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion during the quarter, more than six times the $2.83 billion spent in the same period last year. Approximately $15.83 billion was allocated to AI infrastructure, according to its official second-quarter results.
Investors are therefore confronting two concerns simultaneously: rapidly increasing capital requirements and the risk that employees and early investors sell part of the newly tradable block.
Why a Major Sell-Off by Eligible Shareholders Is Not Guaranteed
Despite the headline numbers, the lockup expiration did not trigger an immediate collapse in SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) during its first trading session.
Employees and early investors are not required to sell. Some may view the current price as too low, particularly given that the stock remains well below its post-IPO peak.
SpaceX also conducted private tender offers before going public, allowing certain employees and early shareholders to sell portions of their holdings. In December 2025, for example, the company approved an arrangement under which new and existing investors and SpaceX could buy up to $2.56 billion of stock from eligible shareholders, Reuters reported. Those earlier liquidity opportunities may reduce the urgency to sell immediately after the lockup expiration.
The pre-unlock decline may also have reflected considerable anticipation of the event. Investors had known about the staggered lockup structure since the IPO, while concerns about the August expiration contributed to weakness before the shares became eligible for sale.
Public trading data alone do not show how many eligible shareholders actually sold shares on August 6. The rebound was consistent with a scenario in which selling was smaller than feared, short sellers covered positions, and bargain hunters entered the market. Still, a single trading session is not enough to determine which factor played the largest role.
A larger pool of tradable shares may eventually provide another benefit. It could improve liquidity, reduce extreme price swings, and make it easier for large and index-tracking funds to hold SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX).
Those longer-term advantages, however, are unlikely to prevent short-term volatility if eligible shareholders begin selling heavily in subsequent sessions.
SpaceX’s Growth Provides the Bullish Case
The underlying company continues to grow at an exceptional rate.
SpaceX’s connectivity division, which primarily includes Starlink, generated $4.29 billion in quarterly revenue, up 66% year over year. Starlink’s subscriber base doubled to 12 million, while the segment delivered $1.66 billion in operating income.
The company’s AI revenue reached $2.56 billion, more than tripling from the year-earlier quarter. SpaceX also ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, providing considerable financial capacity to fund its expansion.
Management argues that current AI compute investments can generate a payback in less than one year, according to the company’s official earnings call transcript. If future earnings support that view, investors may begin viewing the company’s enormous capital expenditure as an aggressive growth investment rather than uncontrolled spending.
For now, the market appears unconvinced.
Will SpaceX Stock Recover or Continue Falling?
The broader near-term technical outlook remains bearish despite the unlock-day rebound.
SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) was making new closing lows before the lockup expiration. The August 6 rally showed that buyers were willing to step in, but the potential increase in tradable supply still complicates the near-term recovery.
A renewed close below $108 would bring the August 6 intraday low near $105 and the psychologically important $100 level back into focus. Those areas may provide the next test of whether buyers can establish durable support.
On the positive side, trading volume surged on August 6 while SpaceX stock remained above $100 and closed higher. That suggested investors initially handled the unlock better than feared. However, one session is not enough to show that the potential supply overhang has cleared.
A recovery above approximately $125—the level at which SpaceX traded before its post-earnings collapse—would be the first sign that selling pressure is weakening. The stock would then need to reclaim its $135 IPO price before investors could confidently argue that the broader downtrend has ended.
ABBO News Verdict
SpaceX’s 911.5 million-share unlock remains a bearish supply risk because it followed a damaging earnings-driven decline. Massive capital spending and additional future unlocks could keep SpaceX stock volatile and create renewed selling pressure.
However, the August 6 rally showed that investors initially handled the unlock better than feared. That first-day reaction weakens the case for an immediate collapse but does not reveal how many newly eligible shares were sold or whether further selling will emerge.
Investors should not confuse eligibility to sell with actual selling. If SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) continues to defend the $100 area and later reclaims $125 and its $135 IPO price, the lockup expiration could mark a short-term bottom rather than the beginning of a deeper decline.
For now, the burden of proof remains with buyers. SpaceX’s long-term growth story remains intact, but a single strong session has not yet provided sufficient evidence that the broader downtrend is over.
